My experiences with the DMV have actually been pretty decent. I think a lot of their negative reputation is from how it used to be, but that they have improved substantially since then?
DMV is a state level agency and varies a lot depending on where you are. It's partially privatized here in Oklahoma and mostly painless (you only need the actual DMV for driver's tests, CDL background checks, etc.) but when I lived on the Illinois side of St. Louis I routinely heard of people spending hours in line.
Normally I'm not a huge fan of privatization but the way it's done here works great. The fees are set by the state and the agency gets a percentage, so if an area is underserved someone just opens another one.
The bottom line is that the country cannot spend more than it makes in tax income indefinitely and anyone who says otherwise is delusional. Unfortunately, I think the reckoning for all this debt will come sooner than many people expect.
You can deficit spend indefinitely as long as your deficit percentage is below your economic growth percentage. That keeps the total debt as percentage of the economy stable and the amount of tax you need to service the debt a stable percentage of your total tax.
If you do that it can be a good idea. It's a way to accelerate investment. It can also be a good idea to modulate your deficit in a cycle counter to the economy so that it acts as a stabilizer.
The US has been failing on all these. The deficits are too large and are high both in good and bad times. Eventually that breaks things.
Infinite growth is possible as long as your economy trades things that are not physically constrained. Art can grow in value over time without hitting any constraints. And even if your economy doesn't grow in real terms, to service debt all you need is for the economy to grow in nominal terms, to have inflation. And even if your economy stagnates completely and has zero inflation you just need to bring your deficit to zero to maintain the debt level. Every year you can just pay the interest on the debt from taxes and your debt as percentage of the economy stays stable without ever paying down the debt.
Sort of yes and no. I don’t think indefinite spending was ever on the cards.
But if other countries tried to maintain the levels of US deficit / debt, they were given far less lenience from investors, in pressure / yields. This was because US was seen as, on the whole, fiscally responsible, very productive, and safer from shocks - to the point that when the US mortgage crisis exploded, the safe haven for assets was… the US.
As these assumptions are challenged, the US is waking up to what the European old economies experienced following 2008. Increasingly yields, increasing costs of borrowing etc.
If you’re reliably printing good GDP growth, higher level of debt may be good as it gives you more leverage, and drives more growth in turn. But leverage is a multiplier and it isn’t free, so if the engine sputters, you might find yourself falling out of the car at a greater speed…
A debt crisis like in eurozone countries in 2008 is very unlikely to happen in the US. For it to happen, it would require the fed working against the us government.
Well, the US clearly has far, far more rope than Greece or Italy. Question is, is that a buffer, or a perfect noose in the making.
The Fed seems already constrained by the administration to not raise rates. Yields went up anyway. US primary deficit is huge and so debt to GDP is accelerating from different angles - interest, increased spending, increased yield demand based off uncontrolled inflation expectations etc.
In fact I suspect that the mega-pivot to AI is an attempt to solve the problem by massively inflating GDP, so that the debt doesn’t matter - ie radically grow the economy. It remains to be seen if it pays off and solves US’s problems.
At the end of the day, the US cannot escape from the forces that drowned Greece - inflation, investor confidence, debt spiral. It’s totally avoidable, but the US seems determined to race full speed ahead at it. Let’s see if Trump can play chicken with economics.
It's basically the Liz Truss situation, except the UK could actually remove her after just one budget because the Conservative party weren't fully on board with her level of brainworms. Whereas the US's two legislative houses are 100% supportive of this.
> Whereas the US's two legislative houses are 100% supportive of this.
I think that it's more likely that many of them just like their jobs, and Trump has a history of orchestrating primary challenges against people who disagree with them.
Now, one could additionally argue that this is only possible because of their frankly insane gerrymandering, and one would be correct, so maybe it is ultimately their fault.
Greece doesn't have its own currency and is completely reliant on private debt markets. Investors, mostly banks, started demanding higher yields, and Greece couldn't do anything about it. The EU used that as an excuse to impose garbage economic policies (austerity) on them, but the whole crisis could have been avoided if the ECB had intervened to keep Greek bond yields close to the ECB's interest rate.
That’s not true, because it would have to mean that money is created by the private sector (or just magically springs into existence somewhere) and that taxing it is the only way for the Government to get it.
Money is a created thing, a creature of the state. We maintain certain fictions about it (like “tax to spend”, allowing the market to set bond yields most of the time and keeping track of the outstanding bonds as “government debt”) because people are scared that Governments wouldn’t be controlled enough to manage money creation if they overtly used the powers they have to issue currency… But effectively they still kind of do it…
And while it’s not perfect it’s actually far more stable than attempts at fixed exchange rates and pegging currency to commodities like gold (which always fails eventually, because it doesn’t stand to reason that the amount of gold or any other commodity in a country would correspond to how much money the economy needs. You can set the exchange rate but it always drifts, so those periods tended to swing between big deflation and then inflation, with panics, recessions, and financial crises every few years)
That's half correct (and yes I did leave that bit out as a simplification to the argument), banks do create money, but not in the mechanism called "fractional reserve banking" which is only found in textbooks because it would actually violate accounting rules (it's true that banks only hold a fraction of their assets as central bank reserves but the mechanism referred to as "fractional reserve banking" and related "money multiplier theory" can't work because the bank can't make a loan out of a deposit because it would require two entries on the same side of the balance sheet).
But it is true that when a bank creates a loan (which to them is an asset, but to the borrower is a liability - debt) it creates a matching deposit (a liability to them) which does increase the money supply. The amount of central bank reserves is not hugely relevant to the process, that's more of a liquidity management thing. The main limitation is actually capital adequacy regulations.
But all of that aside, a Government doesn't need banks to create money so they can tax it, it permits banks to do it by granting them a banking license.
The reckoning will be put on Democrats. It's quite hard to do this while the Republicans hold all the power, but as soon as it flips the media will care again.
I think countries can, but there is a limit to how much debt you can have. It’s fine and even likely better for countries to have some deficit, but not $40T while also starting a war with Iran and imposing random tariffs that destabilize the world economy (+ attacking your allies, and all the other things Trump has done over the past decade, including adding an insane amount to the deficit)
The watermark is in the text. If you copy the text you're copying the watermark which is part of the text.
Computerphile on YT has a video explaining how models can fingerprint the text they produce. Essentially they modify the probabilities of word choice slightly in a predictable way.
Interesting, thanks for the explanation, will check out the video.
This would imply that a positive watermark signal is likely (but not guaranteed) to be AI generated. Also implies that a negative watermark signal is not necessarily void of AI generated text. This would create a problem if people start to trust the watermark as a heuristic, as the ability to critically evaluate the text is replaced by the search for a watermark.
Seems to me all of this is really trying to solve for "is this text bullshit" or not, which would require a different solution.
Rat and mice infestations are not fun. I have had enough trouble dealing with my pollinator and monarch butterfly habitats and mice. I actually TRY to get rabbits and squirrels but mice go after their babies.
Most city code about turfgrass lawns mandates cutting them if you have one. If you don’t want to maintain a lawn by keeping it trimmed, rip it out. It’s a non-native monoculture, allowing it to grow un-maintained is uh, stupid. Rip the sod out and plant clover and daisies, problem solved.
My city also requires “noxious weeds” to be removed, which is a state requirement that the city inherited/adopted: https://www.mda.state.mn.us/minnesota-noxious-weed-list It’s comprised of invasive species like Japanese knotweed and buckthorn and others I am unfamiliar with. Our State Parks and also private landowners use goats to get rid of buckthorn similar to other places.
That being said, city code in my city would allow you to replace a grass law with clover or native plants/grasses or landscaping or wooded areas, etc. The code simply says “If you have a grass lawn you must cut it if the grass generates seeds or is 8” long.”
I mean, I get it - I somewhat agree with your take, but this is somewhat of a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" case.
I think you undermine your argument when you don't understand the complaint. Because I'd also like to see a lot more native plants, and less manicured, mono-culture yards with poison sprayed all over them.
But at least in my area, the problem isn't "oh look a spider"... it's "oh shit, that house is collapsing because of termites", and "Oh shit, my neighbor's mom's house just burned down because rats chewed through the wiring in the walls", and "Fuck me! That's hogweed growing in that yard! Time to call the city".
Pests are a real concern - they cause lots of monetary damage, and can seriously injure or hurt people if not monitored. Does that mean we should nuke everything with chemicals and make a sterile hellscape? No - I don't think it does.
The complaint is not well founded and doesn't explain how native landscapes make the problem any worse.
A healthy ecosystem with owls, snakes, and coyotes will keep rodents in check. But well before that point, the ubiquitous feral domestic cats usually wreak havoc on pests and songbirds alike. Not to mention that most of the problem starts with bad food storage and waste management in the first place, not tall grasses or a few fruit trees (hence the flocks of pigeons and seagulls around parking lot dumpsters).
Plus, no one is trying to stop you from tenting houses for termites, which are meditated by landscape practices like mulch and irrigation rather than the types of plants themselves.
Actually the high income households are becoming a greater and greater share of spending, referred to as the "K shaped" economy. For example, the top quintile of households accounts for about 40% of all consumer spending.
But they only need so many robot housekeepers. And their standards are going to be higher than the average consumer's. If you're targeting that demo, slumming it with a $20k robot won't do; with the performance, bespoke service and maintenance, and other considerations, might as well bump up to $100k or more. But, in the current zeitgeist, you're not making an aspirational product, you're just creating another icon of class warfare that turns off the consumers you were hoping to eventually reach.
I agree that this would be fair, but it seemingly not true. "SEA" disallows "SEAL" on the next turn (correct answer ALES,) but then you are suddenly allowed to use "SEALED" later - because of my assumption of the rule, I didn't get this stage until the clue. Same with "LEASE" and "LEADERS," which are both allowed to use "LEA."
So it seems as though the rule is, you must mix up the letters for the following answer, but further answers are fair game to reuse letter combinations (or, it is applied arbitrarily.) Neither are very intuitive IMO.
Easily. Racism is the belief that certain races are inherently inferior. Positive discrimination in affirmative action is based on the belief that all races are equally capable, and seeks to adjust outcomes temporarily in order to counter balance the effects of cultural bias.
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