It would be interesting to see graphs of how similarly "unprovable" sabotage actions have developed in Russia over the past few years. I doubt we'd ever see accurate reporting out of Russia, but it seems like an obvious thing to do for both Ukrainian intelligence and also for the wider West. It's also be likely to be underreported on because neither the perpetrator nor the victim gains all that much from reporting these kind of things.
>it seems like an obvious thing to do for both Ukrainian intelligence
Yes it must be obvious for Ukraine to use people who are already in Russia to help with local sabotage. It could be as as crude as putting rocks on a rail line or as simple as floating toy balloons across a strategic installation until the local Russian defenses get tired of the false alarms, stop paying attention and don't see an incoming drone.
It's surprising that there are apparently no strong claims of this from either side, but especially from the Russian side. I don't agree that Russia has nothing to gain from arresting people for such activities. Wouldn't it deter others?
I see it as obvious that the Nord Stream pipeline was not blown up without US permission at the very least. (And the media's insistence that it was probably Russia which blew up their own pipeline convinced me beyond doubt that they see loyalty to the war effort as trumping any obligation to the truth). Of course there are going to be sabotage actions the other way too.
International reporting was almost all that it was a Ukrainian operation, eg:
> On 6 June 2023, The Washington Post reported that an intelligence agency of an unnamed European "close ally" had notified the CIA of a Ukrainian military plan for a covert attack on the pipeline. The plan was to be carried out by a team of divers reporting to Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, but the Post did not report any evidence that it had been put into action. The US reportedly learned of the plan three months before the destruction of the pipeline, and shared the intelligence with Germany and other allies.
1. Because many ancient monarchs claimed they had divine backing as the basis of their right to rule. A ruler wearing religious symbols strengthens that association. Chess kings from non-christian countries don't have crosses but go with other symbolism.
2. Because the most famous miracle performed by Jesus is that the crucification didn't stick: he rose from the dead after a few days and ascended to heaven not much later. So the cross is not so much a murder weapon as a callback to the central promise of christianity: that believing will grant you eternal life in Heaven after you die. It should be noted that early christians didn't really use the cross as a symbol btw, that came much later.
Even normal fridges are a memetic virus, fridges clearly live in a symbiotic relationship with humans. They make our lives better and in return we create more fridges. If they weren't useful to us, we'd stop making more fridges. Any medieval human who sees a fridge would instantly recognize why it's useful and valuable.
OP is right, anything popular is virus-like. Richard Dawkins invented the word meme for this all the way back in 1976.
Maybe this is because I'm not a native speaker, but I'm having difficulty parsing this. What breaks? Do you mean time slows down during the retreat, or does the effect persist afterwards?
It's also true that if you raise you expectations enough then you will never be able to hit them.
Keep in mind that it's not always a case of "shoot for the stars but hit the moon if you miss", sometimes it's "shoot for the stars and suffer crippling burnout for 20 years, after which it's too late to recover to anything meaningful".
Being realistic, for all it's boringness, does have advantages.
Not OP, but there's a nuance. In general there's nothing wrong with wanting to be useful, but it is definitely possible to take it too far.
If you get sick and need care, you are typically not "useful". But that doesn't mean you instantly lose all value. I've had colleagues who would feel almost physically ill if they were somehow not able to respond to an incident somewhere, even if they weren't even on call at that point. Almost all of them burned out at some point and were no longer able to respond to anything, even if they'd wanted to. That's not healthy, and it weakens everyone in the long run.
Resting without guilt comes from the realization that you cannot keep the world running all by yourself. Let others pick up the work when you need a rest, so you can shelter them when they are down.
It's not (purely) the sales and finance people, planes need to be able to get off the ground to be useful at all. I doubt even an A380 would still be able to lift off if you strap a dozen inches of armor plating to every part of the plane that could possibly be reached by shrapnel.
You'd put the containment armor directly around the engine. It wouldn't take dozens of inches. Whether you use Newton's rule of thumb (penetration ends when the mass of armor displaced equals the mass of the shell that hit it) or more modern rules - a failing turbine disk is neither a precision-engineered anti-armor weapon, nor a heavy battleship shell.
I'd bet the plane would still be able to take off, if it made it that far. But it never would - with the extra weight guaranteeing that no airline would buy it, Finance would never sign off on funding to even complete the design work.
(Yes, the reality behind my quips about Sales and Finance is more complex:)
Full containment is probably possible, but it would render the aircraft nearly useless, not just economically uncompetitive.
A 70kg chunk of nickel alloy is very dense, and at 800m/s , that’s 20 MJ. Thats about the same as 5kg of TNT, but focused on a small area.
For comparison, a modern 120mm artillery shell fired from a tank or similar field artillery has 10-20 MJ of kinetic energy.
A couple thousand kg of armour could likely contain that kind of energy, but it would also translate that energy to the engine mounts, wing, spar, and fuselage if it was not going to become a projectile itself. You could easily stop a fragment and critically damage a spar attachment, rupture a wing fuel tank, or end up with translational shock damage to any number of critical systems and structures. You’d probably have to double or triple your engineering margins of the entire aircraft, probably doubling the weight of the airframe.
So yeah, possible probably. But not on an aircraft designed to carry passengers or freight. It would be the biggest 6 seat aircraft ever built lol.
Interestingly, if you work backwards from that cargo capacity, you can arrive at a much smaller aircraft that could possibly feature full containment, because engine diameter and energy goes way down and containment starts to look much more practical. I would not be surprised if containment could be achieved in the small biz jet scale, with just significant sacrifices in cargo or range.
OTOH even the A10 warthog does not have full disk containment, and it’s probably the strongest candidate ever fielded for such a project… so, ymmv.
- which bear no resemblance to a failed turbine disk. And have about twice the muzzle velocity, which makes huge difference in penetrating a modern armour systems. Ditto their far greater density, vs. nickel alloy.
OTOH, your "A couple thousand kg of armour could likely contain..." seems too charitable. High-bypass jet engines are big. Beyond that, I'm more optimistic about mitigating shocks and such.
A critical parameter here - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A380#A380F The freight variant was to have a 6,400 mile range carrying 150t of payload. So we could squander 25t per engine on disk containment and shock mitigation, and still have a 50t payload. Or a 3-digit passenger headcount.
Bottom line, there is no real-world difference between your "nearly useless" and my "disastrously uneconomical". Neither one will be designed, let alone built.
For the A10, I'd say military priorities would always block full disk containment - because every pound used for that is a pound they don't have for more weapons or munitions or range or armour or fuel or runway length or electronics or whatever. And over most of the 360 which disk fragments could exit a warhog's engines, there's nothing critical which they could hit.
Good counterpoints all, I think. I’m impressed that we could write off 50t and still have an airplane. That seemed so preposterous that I did not consider it, honestly. Turns out big stuff is big.
Now we can go to the running of the bulls with our respective napkin backs, and see who attracts the bull!
Yes but on the warthog the discs are very far away from the pilot. Or pretty much anything else that matters. The fuselage can take a lot of a beating.
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